Tareony Project 05 · Energy
Analysis / Work / Energy

Six companies, six months.

New Mexico requires 98% natural gas capture by December 31, 2026, and it enforces the line through the thing an operator needs most: permission to drill the next well. Four years of public C-115 filings show a field converging on compliance ahead of schedule, and a small tail that has not.

If you operate in New Mexico, your capture rate is not a sustainability metric. It is a license condition, computed from the filings your own office submits every month.

The Figures

98%
Required by Dec 2026
54 / 60
Already at or above
6
Still below the line
0
Allowed below, next year

Findings

01 · The line

Most operators already clear the line.

Every company producing over one million mcf of New Mexico gas in 2025, subsidiaries rolled up to their corporate parent. Fifty-four of sixty are at or above 98% capture. The six below the line are named, because the state’s own filings name them: from Longfellow Energy at 86% to 3R Operating within half a point of compliance.

Two-panel chart in editorial paper palette. Top panel: a strip plot of 60 companies by 2025 gas capture rate, with 54 dark dots clustered at or above the 98% line drawn in rust, and 6 clay dots spread below it. Bottom panel: the six companies below the line as labeled lollipops. Longfellow Energy 86%, Raybaw Operating 90%, Maverick Natural Resources 92%, Cross Timbers Energy 95%, Harvard Petroleum 97%, 3R Operating 98%.
The gap has a date on it. An operator that misses its annual capture target must file a compliance plan with the state, and if the plan does not demonstrate the ability to comply, approved drilling permits for unspudded wells are suspended. For the tail, the distance to 98 is an operations project with a deadline. For everyone above the line, the same arithmetic still runs per reporting area, every year, against a baseline: staying compliant is a reporting discipline, not a one-time crossing.
02 · The convergence

The tail is shrinking, but the deadline is fixed.

Twenty-one material companies missed the line in 2022. Seventeen in 2023, eleven in 2024, six in 2025. The field is converging on its own, which is what a phased rule with teeth is designed to produce. But the phase-in ends: on December 31, 2026 the count must be zero.

Bar chart in editorial paper palette showing material companies below the 98% gas-capture line by year: 21 in 2022, 17 in 2023, 11 in 2024, 6 in 2025, with a dashed trend line down to an arrow at 2026 labeled must reach zero.
Convergence is voluntary until it is not. The statewide capture rate rose from 99.2% to 99.6% over these four years, and the median material operator now captures 99.8%. The remaining tail is not being dragged by the market; it is being closed by a rule. The companies that crossed early did it the same way the ones below the line will have to: gathering connections, vapor recovery, and a reporting chain that can prove it.
03 · The scale question

Size is not the story. Capture is.

Plot every company’s gas produced against its capture rate and the pattern is unambiguous: the eleven largest producers move 100 to 600 million mcf apiece and all capture over 99%. Every company below the line is small. Clearing 98% is an operational choice, not a function of size.

Scatter plot in editorial paper palette. X-axis is gas produced in 2025 on a log scale from 1 to 600 million mcf; y-axis is gas capture rate from 84 to 100 percent, with the 98% requirement drawn as a rust line. Dark dots for compliant companies spread across all sizes above the line. Six clay dots sit below it, all under 10 million mcf, labeled: 3R Operating, Harvard Petroleum, Cross Timbers Energy, Maverick Natural Resources, Raybaw Operating, and Longfellow Energy at 86%. An annotation notes the 11 largest producers all capture over 99%.
The big operators solved this with systems, not slogans. Flaring the most gas in absolute terms while capturing 99%+ of it means the measurement, routing, and reporting are engineered. The interesting question for a smaller operator is not whether 98% is achievable at your size. The chart answers that. It is which parts of what the majors built (metering, disposition tracking, exception handling) you can get without a major’s headcount.
The enforcement mechanism is the next drilling permit.

The operations read

If you run production, regulatory reporting, or compliance at a New Mexico operator, everything on this page was computed from filings your office already submits: C-115 dispositions on the numerator, C-115 production on the denominator. The state runs the same arithmetic, per reporting area, against your baseline. Which means your capture number is knowable months before it is enforceable, from data you already have.

The work between 96% and 98% is rarely a mystery of engineering. It is metering gaps, misclassified dispositions, unreconciled transfers between operated entities, and month-end numbers assembled by hand. That is data work with a deadline, and it is the kind Tareony does: consolidate the filings, compute the rate the way the rule computes it, and put the exceptions in front of the person who can fix them while there is still calendar left.

Data

NM OCD C-115 flaring & venting disposition data
Operator-year volumes of non-transported gas by disposition (flared, vented, lost, used on lease, gas lift, repressurizing) from 2014, published by the New Mexico Oil Conservation Division.
NM OCD production by operator
Annual natural gas production by operator (OGRID), the denominator for the capture rate.
Reconciled tables
The parent-level 2025 capture table (CSV) and the 2022–2025 trend (CSV) as computed for this piece.

Method

The capture rate here is 1 − (flared + vented) ÷ gas produced, per corporate parent, per year, joining the C-115 disposition table to production on the operator’s OGRID. Operating entities are reconciled to parents by a reviewed crosswalk (for example, Maverick Permian and Breitburn Operating roll up to Maverick Natural Resources). The headline ranking applies a materiality floor of one million mcf produced per year, so small operators’ noisy ratios do not dominate the tail. Companies are ranked by rate, never by absolute volume: the largest producers flare the most gas in absolute terms and still capture over 99%.

The honest caveat, stated plainly: this is an estimate reconstructed from public filings, not the state’s official compliance figure. The rule (19.15.27.9 NMAC) computes capture per reporting area, north and south of Township 10 North, against each operator’s baseline and annual increment, with specific inclusions and exclusions. Our statewide-per-parent reconstruction reproduces the state’s published aggregate for 2025, which validates the method at the field level, but any individual company’s official number can differ from the estimate shown here. If yours does, the method and data above are open; we would rather correct a figure than defend one.

Enforcement, precisely: an operator that misses its annual capture target must submit a compliance plan to EMNRD demonstrating its ability to comply in the current year. If the division determines the plan does not demonstrate that ability, the operator’s approved drilling permits for wells not yet spudded are suspended. Processing in Python (pandas); figures are matplotlib in the editorial palette; the parse, join, and figure code are reproducible.

From the studio

Everything above was reconstructed from the outside, from public filings. If you own this number on the inside (production accounting, the C-115 chain, the reconciliation between field data and what the state sees), you can know where you stand against the line months before the state tells you, and fix the data problems that masquerade as capture problems while there is still 2026 left.

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